- Research Papers



- Published / Forthcoming Articles


[17] Inference for Losers, (with Isaiah Andrews, Dillon Bowen, and Adam McCloskey), (2022),

Forthcoming in American Economic Association, Papers and Proceedings.


[16] Who Should Get Vaccinated? Individualized Allocation of Vaccines over SIR Network, (with Guanyi Wang), (2021),

Forthcoming in Journal of Econometrics. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.09.009


[15] Uncertain Identification, (with Raffaella Giacomini and Alessio Volpicella), (2022).

Quantitative Economics, Vol. 13 (1), pp 95-123. DOI: 10.3982/QE1671


[14] Testing Identifying Assumptions in Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Designs, (with Yoichi Arai, Yu-Chin Hsu, Ismael Mourifie, and Yuanyuan Wan), (2022),

Quantitative Economics. Vol. 13 (1), pp 1-28. DOI: 10.3982/QE1367

Online Supplementary Appendix

Replication files and Matlab functions


[13] The Identification Region of the Potential Outcome Distributions under Instrument Independence, (2021),

Journal of Econometrics. Vol. 225 (2), pp 231-253. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.03.006

Online appendix


[12] Non-Bayesian Updating in a Social Learning Experiment, (with Roberta De Filippis, Antonio Guarino, and Philippe Jehiel), (2022),

Journal of Economic Theory. Vol. 199. DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2021.105188

Replication files

2017 working paper version titled as "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs in a Social Learning Experiment"


[11] Robust Bayesian Inference for Set-identified Models, (with Raffaella Giacomini), (2021).

Econometrica. Vol. 89 (4), pp 1519-1556. DOI: 10.3982/ECTA16773.

Replication files and Matlab functions

This paper merges and replaces two previous working papers, "Robust Inference about Partially Identified SVARs" (2015, with Raffaella Giacomini) and "Estimation and Inference for Set-identified Parameters Using Posterior Lower Probability" (2012).


[10] Robust Bayesian Inference in Proxy SVARs, (with Raffaella Giacomini and Matthew Read), (2022),

Forthcoming in Journal of Econometrics. Vol. 228 (1), pp 107-126. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.02.003

Replication files


[9] Inference After Estimation of Breaks, (with Isaiah Andrews and Adam McCloskey), (2021).

Journal of Econometrics. Vol. 224 (1), pp 39-59. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.036


[8] Posterior Distribution of Nondifferentiable Functions, (with Jose-Luis Montiel-Olea, Jonathan Payne, and Amilcar Velez), (2020),

Journal of Econometrics. Vol. 217 (1), pp 161-175. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.10.009


[7] Equality-Minded Treatment Choice, (with Aleksey Tetenov), (2021),

Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. Vol. 39 (2), pp 561-574. DOI:10.1080/07350015.2019.1688664

Online Supplement


[6] Information Redundancy Neglect versus Overconfidence: A Social Learning Experiment, (with Marco Angrisani, Antonio Guarino, and Philippe Jehiel), (2021),

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics. Vol. 13, No. 3, pp 163-97. DOI: 10.1257/mic.20180394

Online appendix


[5] Mostly Harmless Simulations? Using Monte Carlo Studies for Estimator Selection, (with Arun Advani and Tymon Słoczyński), (2019),

Journal of Applied Econometrics. Vol. 34, pp 893-910. DOI: 10.1002/jae.2724

Supplementary material


[4] Who Should be Treated? Empirical Welfare Maximization Methods for Treatment Choice, (with Aleksey Tetenov) , (2018)

Econometrica, Vol. 86(2), pp 591-616. DOI: 10.3982/ECTA13288.

Supplementary material 1 (Appendices A - C)

Supplementary material 2 (Appendices D - E, replication files)


[3] Model averaging in semiparametric estimation of treatment effects, (with Chris Muris), (2016).

Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 193 (1), pp 271-289. DOI:10.1016/j.jeconom.2016.03.002

* R-codes to replicate Monte Carlo and the empirical application are here.


[2] A Test for Instrument Validity, (2015).

Econometrica, Vol. 83(5), pp 2043-2063. DOI: 10.3982/ECTA11974 (2008 version titled as A Bootstrap Test for Instrument Validity in the Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Model, here).

R-functions to implement the test for a binary or multi-valued discrete instrument.

If you want to test IV-validity with conditioning covariates, I recommend to try tests shown in the working paper [wp26] below (R codes downloadable)


[1] Instrumental Variables Before and LATEr, Comment on `Instrumental Variables: An Econometrician's Perspective' by Guido Imbens, (2014). Statistical Science, Vol. 29, No.3, 359-362. doi:10.1214/14-STS494




- Revise & Resubmit / Working Papers


[wp32] Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret, (with Sokbae Lee and Chen Qiu). (May 2022), arXiv.


[wp31] Policy Choice in Time-Series by Empirical Welfare Maximization, (with Weining Wang and Mengshan Xu). (May 2022), arXiv.


[wp30] Narrative Restrictions and Proxies, (with Raffaella Giacomini and Matthew Read). (Apr 2022), Cemmap working paper 09/22


[wp29] von Mises-Fisher Distributions and Their Statistical Divergence, (with Jeff Rowley). (Feb 2022), arXiv.


[wp27] Paternalism, Autonomy, or Both? Experimental Evidence from Energy Saving Programs, (with Takanori Ida, Takunori Ishihara, Koichiro Ito, Daido Kido, Shosei Sakaguchi and Shusaku Sasaki). (Dec 2021) arXiv.


[wp26] Testing Instrument Validity with Covariates, (with Thomas Carr). (Dec 2021), arXiv.

R functions and replication files.


[wp25] The Value of Piped Water and Sewers: Evidence from 19th Century Chicago, (with Michael Coury, Allison Shertzer and Matthew Turner ). NBER working paper. (Feb 2022)


[wp24] Robust Bayesian Analysis for Econometrics, (with Raffaella Giacomini and Matthew Read). (Aug 2021), CEPR discussion paper.


[wp23] Evidence Aggregation for Treatment Choice, (with Takuya Ishihara). (Aug 2021), arXiv.



[wp22] Constrained Classification and Policy Learning, (with Shosei Sakaguchi and Aleksey Tetenov). (May 2021), arXiv.


[wp21] Identification and Inference under Narrative Restrictions, (with Raffaella Giacomini and Matthew Read). (Feb 2021), arXiv.


[wp20] On Global Identification in Structural Vector Autoregressions, (with Emanuele Bacchiocchi). (Mar 2021), arXiv.



[wp18] Locally- but not Globally-Identified SVARs, (with Emanulele Bacchiocchi), (July 2020), Cemmap Working Paper 40/20.



[wp15] Estimation under Ambiguity, (with Raffaella Giacomini and Harald Uhlig), (May 2019), Cemmap Working Paper 24/19.



[wp10] Inference on Winners, (with Isaiah Andrews and Adam McCloskey), (Apr 2021).

Revise and Resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics.



[wp9] Measurement Error and Rank Correlations, (with Martin Nybom and Jan Stuhler), (April 2018), Cemmap Working Paper 28/18.
Reject and Resubmit, Review of Economics and Statistics.



- Work-in-procrastination



[2] Intersection Bounds, Robust Bayes, and Updating Ambiguous Beliefs, (November 2011).


[1] Testing for Instrument Independence in the Selection Model, (February 2010).

(No title, by Tetsuya Ishida)