Portland, Dorset UK 2008

Drugs, Guns and Early Motherhood in Colombia (Job Market paper)

Work in Progress

MILLAN QUIJANO, Jaime, "Crime and Labour Market, Choice Under Uncertainty Model and an Application for Colombian Cities" Well Being and Social Policy, 6(2): 3 - 23. Download

Journal Publications

This paper uses potential geographical and temporal variation in drug trafficking networks to instrument for the predominance of violent crime in different regions of Colombia and examines its effect on the prevalence of early motherhood. Using changes in the relative profits of different international cocaine markets we identify exogenous changes in violent crime rates at the municipality level; results from this first stage suggest that homicide rates increase in municipalities when the cocaine price in the international markets that they are strategically best placed to serve increases relative to those in other international markets. My second stage results suggest that a one standard deviation increase in the homicide rate induces an 2.8 p.p. increase in the probability of early motherhood

    JEL: D74, K42, J13, C41

Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) programs are known to be necessary components of public policy in order to achieve sustainable peace after an armed conflict, although there has been no previous work looking at the economic aspects of such programs. This paper fills this gap and proposes a microeconomic framework to describe the features of an optimal reintegration contract. In my model a Principal collects taxes from the community and sets a menu of threats and benefits to the members of illegal armed groups in order to give them incentives to leave the conflict and look for a legal job.The shape of the optimal contract depends on the relative productivity of the security technology and the level of absorption of the labour markets.

    JEL: D74, D81, D86

Designing an Optimal Reintegration Contract


I have participated in the evaluation of different policy interventions in Latin America. This is a list of the must recent and more important evaluations:

  1. Base line design for the evaluation of future interventions on adolescents’ sexual health, work in progress - Colombia.

  2. Impact evaluation of the conditional cash transfer program “AIN-C”, 2012 - Honduras.

  3. Impact evaluation of the sexual health intervention “Servicios Amigables para Jóvenes”, 2011 - Medellín, Colombia.

  4. Impact evaluation of the conditional cash transfer program “Familias en Acción”, 2006 and 2011 - Colombia.

  5. Survey of perceptions and arguments of Colombians about truth, justice and amends, 2006 - Colombia

  6. Internal Displacement and Vulnerable Population Diagnostic and Policy Strategies to the Municipalities of PILAS, 2006 - Colombia

  7. Social and Economical Impact Evaluation of PADEMER, 2006 - Colombia

My main research fields are Applied Microeconomics, Development Economics and Public Policy.  My Research Statement summarises my current research.