FABIAN KESICKI

Research

PhD Title: Decomposing long-run carbon abatement cost curves - robustness and uncertainty

To achieve long-term climate mitigation stabilisation goals, subsequent international agreements to the Kyoto Protocol require a broad range of countries to act together with stricter targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The thesis investigated the costs, trade-offs and uncertainties of marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves that give insights into the technological structure of emission abatement. The focus was on the United Kingdom and particularly the power sector, transport and the domestic sector.

For the dissertation, an energy-economic model-based apporach provided a solid theoretical basis, through a technologically explicit, partial equilibrium, optimisation framework. This approach encapsulates sectoral detail, energy supply chain infrastructures, direct as well as indirect effect on markets and prices, and an explicit treatment of mitigation options.

Such a systems approach served as a base to calculate abatement cost curves as well as interactions betweeen measures in the calculation of MAC curves. The modelling suite was the UK MARKAL model. This includes several variants, developed within the International Energy Agency's ETSAP consortium, of which University College London is the United Kingdom's primary research centre.

Decomposition and sensitivity analysis served to attribute the changes in the curve to mitigation sources, and to represent how sensitive the measures are to variations of the underlying drivers and assumptions. With this approach it was possible not only to attribute costs to certain reduction quantities, but also to make statements about what measures are responsible for reduction potentials through to 2050. The results of the thesis provide a suitable orientation base for robust decision making in long-term climate policy.

Biography

Before starting his PhD, Fabian worked as a research assistant (from October 2007 to December 2008) at the Institute for Energy Economics and Rational Use of Energy, University of Stuttgart. In Stuttgart, he principally worked in two research areas. The first involved determining MAC curves using a global energy system and the other entailed studying the long-term development of the oil price by coupling an energy system model with an oil market model. From 2009 to 2011, Fabian carried out his PhD at the UCL Energy Institute, University College London (UCL). He studied how existing approaches to MAC curves can be improved through the use of an energy system model and decomposition analysis. Currently, Fabian works at the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris on topics including energy efficiency, climate change mitigation and industrial competitiveness.

Fabian holds an MSc (Dipl.-Wi.-Ing.) in Business Engineering from the University of Karlsruhe, an MSc (diplôme d'ingénieur) and an MPhil (Master Recherche) in Industrial Engineering from the Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble.

Publications

Peer-reviewed journals

Kesicki, F. and A. Yanagisawa (2014): Modelling the potential for industrial energy efficiency in IEA's World Energy Outlook, Energy Efficiency (forthcoming)

Kesicki, F. (2013): What are the key drivers of MAC curves? A partial-equilibrium modelling approach for the UK, Energy Policy 58, p. 142-151

Kesicki, F. (2013): Marginal abatement cost curves: combining energy system modelling and decomposition analysis, Environmental Modeling and Assessment 18 (1), p. 27-37

Kesicki, F. (2012): Costs and potentials of reducing CO2 emissions in the UK domestic stock from a systems perspective, Energy and Buildings 51, p. 203-211

Kesicki, F. (2012): Intertemporal issues and marginal abatement costs in the UK transport sector, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 17 (5), p. 418-426

Kesicki, F. and P. Ekins (2012): Marginal abatement cost curves: a call for caution, Climate Policy 12 (2), p. 219-236

Kesicki, F. and N. Strachan (2011): Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves: confronting theory and practice, Environmental Science & Policy 14 (8), p. 1195-1204

Kesicki, F. and G. Anandarajah (2011): The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis, Energy Policy 39 (11), p. 7224-7233

Kesicki, F. (2010): The third oil price surge - What's different this time?, Energy Policy 38 (3), p. 1596-1606

Non peer-reviewed journals

Kesicki, F. (2009): Beeinflussen Spekulanten den Ölpreis? (Do speculators influence the oil price?), Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen 59 (8), p. 18-22

Remme, U., Blesl, M., Fahl, U., Kesicki, F. and A. Voß (2009): Ölpreisentwicklung (Oil price development) - Quo vadis?, Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen 59 (5), p. 26-32

Conferences

Kesicki, F. (2011):Why are MAC curves robust to different fossil fuel prices? An application to the UK power sector, Stanford: Semi-annual ETSAP workshop, July 9th 2011

Kesicki, F. (2011): Intertemporal Issues and Marginal Abatement Costs in the UK Transport Sector, Rome: 18th Annual Conference of the EAERE, June 29th-July 2nd 2011

Anandarajah, G. and F. Kesicki (2010): Global Climate Change Mitigation: What is the Role of Demand Reduction, Vilnius: 11th IAEE European Conference, August 25th-28th 2010

Kesicki, F. (2010): Marginal Abatement Cost Curves: Combining Energy System Modelling and Decomposition Analysis, Stockholm: International Energy Workshop, June 21st-23rd 2010

Kesicki, F. (2010): Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Policy Making - Model-derived versus Expert-based Curves, Rio de Janeiro: 33rd IAEE International Conference, June 6th-9th 2010 (awarded the runner up prize for the best student paper)

Anandarajah, G., Kesicki, F. and S. Pye (2010): Carbon Tax vs. Cap-and-Trade: Implications on Developing Countries Emissions, Rio de Janeiro: 33rd IAEE International Conference, June 6th-9th 2010

Kesicki, F., Remme, U., Blesl, M. and U. Fahl (2009): Eine integrative Szenarienanalyse der langfristigen Ölpreisentwicklung (An integrative scenario analysis of the long-term development of the oil price), Vienna: 6. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung (International Conference on Energy Economics), February 11th-13th 2009

Remme, U., Kesicki, F., Blesl, M. and U. Fahl (2008): Long-term energy price interdependencies between market power, resource availability and demand options: A sensitivity analysis with the soft coupling of TIAM and LOPEX, Nice: Semi-annual ETSAP workshop, December 15th-17th 2008

Remme, U., Rehrl, T., Kesicki, F., Blesl, M. and U. Fahl (2008): Long-term interdependencies of oil markets and climate policy: Coupled analysis with a game-theoretic oil market model and an energy system model, Paris: Internation Energy Workshop, June 30th - July 2nd 2008

Reports

International Energy Agency (2014): World Energy Investment Outlook, OECD/IEA, Paris

International Energy Agency (2013): World Energy Outlook 2013, OECD/IEA, Paris

International Energy Agency (2013): Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map, OECD/IEA, Paris

International Energy Agency (2012): World Energy Outlook 2012, OECD/IEA, Paris

Ekins, P., Kesicki, F. and A. Smith (2011): Marginal abatement cost curve: a call for caution, UCL Energy Institute, London

Anandarajah, G., Pye, S., Usher, W., Kesicki, F. and C. McGlade (2011): TIAM-UCL Global Model Documentation, UK Energy Research Centre, London

Fahl, U., Blesl, M., Bruchof, D., Götz, B., Kober, T., Kuder, R., Hundt, M., Kempe, S., Küster, R., Lambauer, J., Ohl, M., Sun, N., Wille, V., Wissel, S., Ellersdorfer, I., Kesicki, F., Remme, U., Achten, P., Frondel, M., Grösche, P., Peistrup, M., Ritter, N., Schmidt, T., Vance, C., Zimmermann, T., Löschel, A., Bühler, G., Hoffmann, T., Mennel, T., and N. Wölfing (2010): Projecting Energy Market Trends until 2030 – Energy Outlook 2009, Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (Universität Stuttgart), Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Essen), Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (Mannheim)

Kesicki, F., Remme, U., Blesl, M., Fahl, U. and A. Voß (2009): The third oil price surge - What is different this time and what are possible future oil price developments?, working paper nr.7, Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (Universität Stuttgart)

Posters

Kesicki, F. (2010): An innovative model-based approach to CO2 marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, Oxford: 8th BIEE Academic Conference, September 22nd-23rd 2010 (awarded the second prize for the best student poster)

This page last modified 28 September, 2014 by [Fabian Kesicki]